Why Donald Trump Secured a Major Step in Gaza Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Vladimir Putin Over Ukraine
Reports of an impending US-Russia leadership summit have been overstated, it seems.
Just days after President Trump said he planned to confer with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A preliminary get-together by the two nations' leading diplomats has been called off, too.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump informed reporters at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I will observe what transpires."
- Donald Trump states he did not want a 'unproductive session' after plan for negotiations with Putin postponed
- Letdown in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky leaves Washington without results
The on-again, off-again summit is another twist in Trump's efforts to broker an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a subject of increased attention for the US president after he orchestrated a truce and prisoner exchange deal in Gaza.
While making remarks in Egypt last week to celebrate that truce deal, Trump addressed Steve Witkoff, with a new request.
"We have to get Russia done," he said.
However, the conditions that aligned to make a Middle East success possible for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for nearing four years.
Less Leverage
Per the lead negotiator, the key to unlocking a deal was the Israeli government's move to strike representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a action that angered America's Arab allies but provided Trump leverage to compel Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump benefited from a long record of siding with the Israeli state since his first term, encompassing his decision to relocate the American embassy to the contested city, to alter America's position on the legality of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his support for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, actually, is more popular among Israelis than their prime minister – a position that provided him with unique influence over the Israeli leader.
Add in the president's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to secure an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, Trump has significantly reduced leverage. In recent months, he has swung between attempts to pressure the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has threatened to impose new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to supply the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that doing so could harm the world's financial stability and intensify the war.
Meanwhile, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with the country and suspending weapon deliveries to the country - only to then back off in the wake of worried European partners who warn a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the whole area.
Trump often boasts about his ability to sit down and hammer out deals, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to move the hostilities any closer to a peaceful end.
Putin may actually be using Trump's desire for a settlement – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a method of manipulating him.
In July, Russia's leader consented to a summit in Alaska at the time when it appeared likely that Trump would sign off on congressional sanctions package supported by Senate Republicans. That legislation was subsequently delayed.
Last week, as reports spread that the US administration was seriously contemplating sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the president of Russia phoned Trump who then promoted the potential summit in Budapest.
The next day, Trump welcomed Zelensky at the executive residence, but left without agreements after a allegedly tense meeting.
Trump insisted that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated throughout my career by skilled operators, and I came out really well," he said.
But the Ukrainian leader subsequently commented on the timeline of developments.
"Once the matter of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine – for Ukraine – Russia quickly became less engaged in negotiations," he stated.
Thus, in a short period, Trump has bounced from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to organizing a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and confidentially urging the Ukrainian president to cede all of Donbas – even land Russia has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately settled on calling for a truce along present frontlines – something Russia has refused to accept.
During his election campaign previously, Trump promised that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has subsequently abandoned that commitment, admitting that ending the war is proving more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his power – and the difficulty of establishing a framework for peace when both parties desires, or is able to, cease hostilities.