🔗 Share this article

Amid the widespread uncertainty following the United States attacks on Venezuela, the seizure of leader Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “manage” the country and “seize control of the oil”, one thing is clear – they set a truly chilling precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States possesses a dark record of meddling, military incursions, and control in that part of the world, but the recent overnight operation witnessed its first major military attack on the continent of South America. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Mr Trump declared.

The move to assault another sovereign country and capture its head of state – mere days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – carries even broader implications. We all have reason to be worried.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has remarked that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and rejected prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other factions of the decapitated regime are even more hardline.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who won power pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is turning it into a rogue state.

He holds the view that the US’s might allows it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: observe the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He asserts that the oil resources of Venezuela means this new undertaking “won’t cost us a penny”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came lacking any form of UN approval or the consent of the US Congress; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to obliterate them.

Disregard the implication this carries to global powers like Russia and China, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will surely embolden further adventurism.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

It is widely rejected the pretext that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is driven by the promise of energy wealth as well as a desire to project strength, the worldview of key officials, and the appetite for triumphalism as his support at home declines.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode underscores the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could still pressure him to turn attention back home – but soaring healthcare premiums, economic unhappiness and ongoing controversies increase his appetite for distraction.

It has been less than 12 months into his presidential term. Other governments may come to rue the day if they fail to speak up today, with the question of which nation is next looming.