The Red Roses Continue to be Favorites for Rugby World Cup Glory, However Betting on Them Is a Different Story.
Roses are red, the Scots in azure, the stakes are rising, how will they do? The scoreboard answer from a soaking wet Bristol came as little surprise. When bookmakers start quoting extremely long odds for a team to win a lopsided contest, the chances of the English side not making it to the semi‑finals were roughly on a par with anyone in the stands getting sunstroke.
With it came yet another record statistic for John Mitchell’s bunch of serial winners. No leading international rugby side in history has previously won 31 Tests in a row as the English women’s team have accomplished: 61 wins in their past 62 Tests leaves precious little room for critics to question their heritage or killer instinct.
Yet would you absolutely put your mortgage on the English lifting the World Cup in less than two weeks? This could hinge on the precise sum of money involved and possible access to other emergency income streams. But would you? Instantly? Judging by the performance of this particular game, even with the comfortable victory margin and challenging weather, one might feel tempted to hold fire.
Certainly, Zoe Aldcroft’s comeback is highly significant. What a totemic figure the England captain has grown into. And, as ever, when England get within five metres of their rivals in possession, their supporters lick their lips. Scotland were wonderfully spirited and tirelessly determined, but physical realities cannot be ignored when powerful players with subterranean centres of gravity are queueing up to cross the try line.
The occasionally underrated Morwenna Talling deserved her award for best on pitch, while Kelsey Clifford, in for the injured Hannah Botterman, grasped her opportunity with both hands. Her two no-nonsense first-half tries likely thrilled everyone at her first club, Finchley Rugby Club, where her father introduced her to the sport at the age of six. Then there is that fleet-footed marvel Dow, who scored her 50th Test try and played with her customary speed and vigor.
A single-figure penalty count on a filthy afternoon was a further positive. But into the final equation the handful of tries they didn’t nail due to persistent small errors, questionable decisions, and intermittent flow. On other days, against opponents with a sturdier set piece, the game might have turned out much closer.
The coach believed his side had been disadvantaged by Scottish cynicism up front, but overconfidence risks lurks around every corner. Is it really a great innovation, for example, for reserve squad members to be bashing away at drums from the sidelines mid-match? Shouldn’t they be concentrating more intently on the game and reserve such activities for afterwards? Or, better still, quietly take a few more lessons before “entertaining” the public further?
Of more immediate urgency is whether England are hitting all the right on-field notes. This, for example, was Aitchison’s opportunity to start at No 10 and show her suitability to keep the position for crucial matches. She possesses great skill and converted most of her goals, but the team’s backs seldom clicked as the management might have hoped.
A highlight came after she was moved to the wing, gliding down the 12 channel to score a smooth second-half try. But England prefer to start the physically assertive Heard at inside-centre, alongside the ever-impressive Jones. Even after all the endless winning, it sometimes feels as if England are still not totally sure of the best starting lineup.
Maybe it won’t matter when Kildunne returns. Their powerful forwards and deep squad talent will wear down all-comers and the ultimate prize will be won for the first time since 2014. Maybe the winners of the other semi-final between the Canadians and Kiwis will be overwhelmed by the home side’s relentless advance. According to the Scottish skipper Malcolm rightly said, “England are the No 1 team in the world with justification.”
But just maybe England’s future opponents still have a tiny sniff. As the lively Francesca McGhie breached England’s defence in the closing stages to create the position from which Rhona Lloyd scored a late try, the eyes of one or two Black Ferns would certainly have lit up. Scotland found success with tactical kicks into space and pressuring the English centers to turn.
Answers will come shortly. What is not in any doubt is the support for England in the stands. The venue was packed for this contest and will repeat for the next round. The final will be a monumental occasion, whatever the weather. And the bookies are unlikely to abandon the favorites at this stage.