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Just 48 hours remaining.

The English side's first Test in Australia gets under way on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we explore where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to score runs, right?

Batters on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are even planning to show up.

Much of the build-up has focused on the perceived challenge of scoring runs, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, especially against pace bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and durability of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

Aside from Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the pair, they have won by a total of 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, results have remained strong – The tourists should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England could not find an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Since Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a reason in Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who famously struck the first ball of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been identified as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His batting average rises when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, most likely back at three.

Across seven matches in 2025, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful gamble, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in this country, though Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against India, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was introduced, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

England have a depressing habit of being beaten in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

Traditionally, the series began in Brisbane, where they have not won since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the identical, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

Perth hosts an series opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the tourists tackle with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the venue for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia played a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now not used to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new ground has been claimed by the team setting a target.

The English often overthink floodlit Tests, when data indicate the pink ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The issue in {day-night matches|