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In the course of the 2016 campaign for the US presidency, Hungary's prime minister was notable as the sole EU chief to support the Republican candidate. This backing was expected, given the Hungarian leader's embrace of contentious ideas such as great replacement ideology and his restrictions against press independence. Commentators observe that Hungary's premier more or less laid the groundwork for Trump's base, with one-time strategist Steve Bannon once praising Orbán as the "Trump before Trump".

Electoral Support Ahead of Hungarian Elections

In recent days, with crucial Hungarian elections merely six months away, the US president reciprocated with support. As Mr Orbán seeks a fifth consecutive term presiding over a country he calls an illiberal state, his Fidesz party lags in opinion polls. A meeting to Washington produced beyond Trump campaign souvenirs; it secured far more significant pre-election gifts.

Special Treatment and Financial Shields

Although earlier instructing European states on the need to stop all fuel purchases from the Russian Federation, and threatening restrictions against countries continuing to buy Russian oil, Mr Trump agreed to provide a special exemption for Hungary – the top consumer among EU members of Russian crude. According to Mr Orbán, the American leadership also pledged to provide a “financial shield” to the Hungarian authorities should it faces any upcoming challenges, especially as Brussels continues to withhold large sums from the EU to the nation due to failures to uphold the rule of law.

The details of this arrangement are unclear. However Donald Trump has shown his inclination to support ideological allies when the United States granted a $20bn emergency credit line to the Argentine leader, the South American leader. While Mr Orbán was unable to arrange a presidential tour to Budapest, the discussions nevertheless turned out to be a profitable day’s work.

Brussels' Worries and Geopolitical Stakes

Among European leaders, Trump's actions will have emphasized the geopolitical stakes of the coming election, ahead of which the centrist challenger, the rival candidate, has a clear edge in opinion data. Heads of state are accustomed not to anticipate reliable policies from the Trump administration, and are familiar with the American leader's attempts to undermine the EU. But the waiver for Hungary – which came at the price of an pledge to purchase US gas and nuclear energy – flagrantly undermines the bloc's aims to phase out imports of Russian energy by 2027.

• Since 2022, the largest EU buyers of Russian oil, these two countries, have funneled more than ten billion pounds to the Moscow's war operations.
• Simultaneously, Budapest has consistently deployed the veto power to impede moves in Ukraine's bid to join the EU.
• While Europe works to develop a cohesive plan for supporting Kyiv, and bolstering its position in any upcoming peace talks, the Hungarian leader's alignment with Moscow at the diplomatic table is still a key barrier.

Challenger's Position

The opposition candidate has steered clear of pledging a drastic turnaround on Ukraine, and directed his efforts on domestic issues, while highlighting the importance for Hungary to begin operating as a positive member state. After enduring repeated disruptions, Brussels can only wait and hope. The Hungarian leader's apathy to fundamental European principles, such as the support for minority protections and the autonomy of civic groups, has remained a deeply troubling issue for the EU. His ongoing blocking tactics regarding Ukrainian matters could harm its future security.